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Sputnik |
Monday,
08.02.2021.|
10:57
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Copy linkRussian Expert Advises Which Currencies Should Not be Purchased at the Moment
Most currencies are susceptible to weakening due to the buyout of assets by central banks and the drop of interest rates. Even traditional currencies, usually considered safe havens, such as the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc, are exposed to the risk, according to Mikhail Kogan, the head of the Analytic Research Department at the Financial Management College.
– In the category of reserve currencies, it can be said that the dominant opinion is that, in the upcoming months, the dollar is to weaken relative to other currencies. For example, the consensus projection of investment banks regarding the EUR/USD exchange rate predicts its growth to 1.25 this year (it is currently 1.21) – the expert told the “Prime” agency.
On the other hand, the European Central Bank has spent more than the USA on asset buyout, considering the numbers relative to the GDP.
Furthermore, Kogan said that the eurozone economy was affected by the coronavirus pandemic to a greater extent that the US one, which is why he believes that euro is one of the potential candidates for weakening.
According to the expert, changes are possible even when it comes to safe currencies, which grow during risky periods. If the economy, as many hope, starts recovering actively, the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc funds can be transferred to riskier assets, he says. Kogan believes that the British pound could experience difficulties, dropping in value for a while due to the perspectives of the implementation of negative rates by the Bank of England in the light of Brexit.
On the other hand, the Chinese yuan and the Russian ruble stand a good chance of getting stronger, the expert believes. His conclusion is that the Russian currency could strengthen if the sanction risks are not realized and the oil prices keep growing.
– In the category of reserve currencies, it can be said that the dominant opinion is that, in the upcoming months, the dollar is to weaken relative to other currencies. For example, the consensus projection of investment banks regarding the EUR/USD exchange rate predicts its growth to 1.25 this year (it is currently 1.21) – the expert told the “Prime” agency.
On the other hand, the European Central Bank has spent more than the USA on asset buyout, considering the numbers relative to the GDP.
Furthermore, Kogan said that the eurozone economy was affected by the coronavirus pandemic to a greater extent that the US one, which is why he believes that euro is one of the potential candidates for weakening.
According to the expert, changes are possible even when it comes to safe currencies, which grow during risky periods. If the economy, as many hope, starts recovering actively, the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc funds can be transferred to riskier assets, he says. Kogan believes that the British pound could experience difficulties, dropping in value for a while due to the perspectives of the implementation of negative rates by the Bank of England in the light of Brexit.
On the other hand, the Chinese yuan and the Russian ruble stand a good chance of getting stronger, the expert believes. His conclusion is that the Russian currency could strengthen if the sanction risks are not realized and the oil prices keep growing.
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