Statistical Office Projecting Inflation Until Year-End

Due to the announced excise tax and electricity and gas price increases, we are looking at a y-o-y inflation of around 9% in the final trimester, whereas the average annual inflation will be around 13%, as estimated by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia.

– An increase in the excise taxes on fuel, cigarettes and tobacco products, alcoholic beverages and coffee of 8% for each item respectively has been announced for the fourth quarter of 2023. Also, in the arrangement with the IMF, ever since the beginning of 2023, another electricity price increase was agreed for households for November (in addition to the already realized increases in January and May) of 8% (and around 10% for gas). By inputting these announced excise tax changes in the model of the leading indicator of consumer prices in Q4 2023, we project a y-o-y increase in consumer prices of around 9%, whereby the average inflation of consumer prices in the whole of 2023 would remain at a level of around 13% – the Statistical Office says in the report Trends for II Quarter of 2023.

The extraordinary growth of the excise taxes on cigarettes of 8% in October 2023 will contribute to an average growth of cigarette prices by around seven dinars, which would be a growth of 1.8% compared to the third quarter of 2023 and 7.8% compared to the third quarter of 2022. The growth of the excise taxes on alcoholic drinks will increase their current contribution from the third quarter of 2022 by around 0.1 percentage points at the most.

– The conclusion is that the biggest impact on the y-o-y price increase in the fourth quarter of 2023 will still be generated by the increases in the prices of food and electrical energy, but by its impact, compared to the previous quarters, it will not be too far ahead of the prices of tobacco and alcoholic beverages and fuel – says the report of the Statistical Office.

Republički zavod za statistiku

Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia

Statistical Office

inflation

fuel excise taxes

excise taxes on cigarettes

excise taxes on alcoholic beverages

excise taxes on coffee

electricity price increase

gas price increase