NBS: Both Financial and Corporate Sectors Expect Easing of Inflation Pressures

According to the Ipsos survey, the financial sector expects that one-year ahead inflation will measure 7.0% in July 2024, i.e. it will decline from the last survey’s 8%. The last three Bloomberg surveys reported a similar level (7.0%) with one-year ahead inflation expectations at 6.9% in August.

As announced on the website of the National Bank of Serbia (NBS), short-term corporate expectations (one-year ahead) continued decreasing for the second consecutive survey, this time with somewhat greater intensity than last month. Expectations stood at 9.8% in June and 9.2% in July.

Two- and three-year ahead inflation expectations of both financial and corporate sector are lower than short-term expectations. Two-year ahead inflation expectations of the financial sector stayed unchanged from the last survey, at 5.0% while three-year ahead expectations are within NBS tolerance band, at 3.8%.

Medium-term corporate expectations are lower than in June, for both periods. Two-year ahead expectations dropped from 6.8% in June to 6.2% in July, and three-year ahead expectations from 5.0% in June to 4.8%.

Two- and three-year ahead expectations indicate that both financial and corporate sector expect the waning of inflationary pressures in the coming period and the gradual return of inflation within the target tolerance band in the medium run, the NBS adds.

Narodna banka Srbije Beograd

Ipsos

National Bank of Serbia

inflation

inflation expectations

short term inflation expectations of corporate sector

medium term inflation expectations of corporate sector