Analysis of trading on Belgrade Stock Exchange - February 4-8, 2008

At weekly level, index BELEX15 Beogradske berze registered the fall in amount of 2.69%, while BELEX line lost 0.62% of its value. Weekly participation of foreign investors in the trade in stocks amounted to 63.7% (purchase) and 51.42% (sales).

The most liquid stocks first registered big growth on Monday, and then changed the trend on Tuesday. All three stocks from A list - Energoprojekt holding, Sojaprotein and Tigar, had maximum growth of 10% on Monday. When compared to the prices between Monday and Thursday, Energoprojekt holding registered fall of 10.52%, Sojaprotein's fall amounted to 6.05%, while Tigar's value was decreased by 9.10%. On Friday, the values of all stocks from A list grew again: Energoprojekt holding by 2.86%, Sojaprotein by 1.08% and Tigar by 3%. However, small positive changes in prices on Friday had effect on very small scope of trading, so that the most traded stocks on that day were the stocks of Agrobanka with about 300,000 EUR worth of turnover.

The most traded stocks at weekly level were the stocks of AIK bank with about 3.5m EUR worth of turnover, followed by stocks of Sojaprotein with about 2.4m EUR worth of turnover and stocks of Ikarbus with the turnover worth about 1.6m EUR. Five stocks that registered the largest increase in price (Agrocoop 19.91%, Telefonkabl 14.40%, Sunce 14.28%, Napred GP 11.43% and Iritel 11.34%) had total weekly turnover worth about 50,000 EUR. Energoprojekt holding's turnover was worth about 700,000 EUR.

Large number of investors who invested significant funds in the most liquid stocks at much lower prices few months and years ago are now leaving their positions, so that it is hard to estimate the real pressure on supply in case of higher demand. Concerning the fact that the basic cause for high variability of supply and demand lies in political instability, it is difficult to predict how that relation will determine the price of stocks in the following weeks.

Author :

Bojan Jelenković

phone: +381 11 330 10 16

[email protected]